Arsenal’s underlying numbers suggest there’s only one way the Premier League title is heading

Arsenal head to Nottingham Forest on Sunday sitting second in the Premier League, three points behind Manchester City. Enzo Maresca’s side have won all six of their league games so far and host Ipswich on Saturday, while Arsenal’s only slip came in the 3-0 defeat at Brighton before the international break.

Of course, City’s perfect start has come amid a huge grey cloud looming over them. An independent commission found them guilty of 114 of the 115 charges brought by the Premier League, and with the club appealing, it’s still unclear what punishment they’ll eventually face.

On the pitch, they’ve been setting the pace, but when you look a little closer at the underlying data, Arsenal have no reason to panic yet.